The Future
The future section is scenario work. Assumptions are listed. Uncertainty is listed. Nothing here is a prophecy.
Four working scenarios organize the problem: current trajectory, supply expansion, affordability improvement, and continued decline.
If production stays far below UN-Habitat's 96,000-units-a-day need estimate through 2030, informal settlements grow rather than 'tighten a bit.' That is a conditional statement. If the assumptions fail, the path fails.
Open a scenario for the labeled assumptions. Open the essay for the forks. Do not quote either as a forecast.
Each figure carries a geography, period, and named source. None of these is a global median home price.
New units needed per day to 2030
96,000
housing units per day
UN-Habitat estimate of the production pace required to meet adequate-housing needs by 2030. This is a need estimate, not observed construction.
People lacking adequate housing
2.8 billion
people
UN-Habitat 2024 Annual Report. 'Adequate housing' is a rights-based concept, not a single dwelling-unit count. Earlier UN-Habitat papers have used a range of 1.6–3 billion.
