The Future
Interest rates, land-use law, construction costs, migration, public investment, and climate displacement can all bend a housing path.
A change is only a housing change if it shows up in completions, rents, or adequacy — not merely in a speech.
Cheaper credit without more permitted homes can bid up the existing stock. Faster factories without land where jobs are will not house 1.1 billion people in informal settlements. More social rental without a change in exclusionary land-use rules will not by itself open the most productive cities.
Canada's official starts-versus-need gap is a reminder that a national target is not a completion. CMHC's modeled 417,000–469,000 annual starts through 2036 is a policy-relevant range, not a prediction that those homes will be built.
Each figure carries a geography, period, and named source. None of these is a global median home price.
New units needed per day to 2030
96,000
housing units per day
UN-Habitat estimate of the production pace required to meet adequate-housing needs by 2030. This is a need estimate, not observed construction.
Annual starts needed to restore pre-pandemic affordability by 2036
417,000–469,000
homes per year
CMHC modeled range. The width reflects different assumptions about how strongly households respond to lower prices.
