The Future
Future scenarios
Four labeled paths. Each has assumptions, a time period, methodology, variables, and factors that could change the result.
Open a scenario for the full note. Do not quote them as forecasts.
Scenario
Current trajectory
If urbanization, land-use constraints, and construction capacity stay near their recent paths, inadequate housing remains a mass condition globally and high-income affordability stays strained.
Scenario
Housing supply expansion
A path in which planning, industrial production, and public investment raise completions enough to change local price and rent dynamics.
Scenario
Affordability improvement
The conditions under which price-to-income and rent-to-income measures actually fall for the households currently under the most pressure.
Scenario
Continued affordability decline
A path in which prices and rents keep outrunning incomes in high-demand cities, delaying household formation and deepening rent burden.