The Future
If current production, planning, and income paths persist, adequacy and affordability problems compound rather than politely plateau.
This is not a forecast. It is a set of conditional stories: what could follow if construction, incomes, and policy stay near their current paths — and what would have to change.
A world that urbanizes without a matching rise in adequate dwellings will grow informal settlements. UN-Habitat's 2.8 billion adequacy finding and 96,000-units-a-day need estimate through 2030 are the official numbers this briefing inherits. They are not a schedule of completions.
In high-income cities the fork is different. Incomes must outpace housing costs, or supply must rise where demand is, or both. OECD-average real house prices more than 40% above a decade earlier are the starting condition, not a prediction of the next decade.
The accompanying essay states the forks. The four scenario pages state the assumptions. Industrial construction is one possible lever, not a guaranteed outcome, and JemRock's interest in it is disclosed on the solutions page.
Each figure carries a geography, period, and named source. None of these is a global median home price.
New units needed per day to 2030
96,000
housing units per day
UN-Habitat estimate of the production pace required to meet adequate-housing needs by 2030. This is a need estimate, not observed construction.
People lacking adequate housing
2.8 billion
people
UN-Habitat 2024 Annual Report. 'Adequate housing' is a rights-based concept, not a single dwelling-unit count. Earlier UN-Habitat papers have used a range of 1.6–3 billion.
OECD real house prices vs. a decade earlier
+40%
real price change, OECD average
OECD states that real house prices increased by over 40% over the past decade on average across the OECD. This is an average of member countries, not a global median price.
